You can follow Matt Scribbins on twitter @mattscribbins

 Pythagorean wins

A great predictor of NBA playoff success is regular season point differential. The key word is predictor, and sometimes predictions are wrong. If you are a believer in the wonders of point differentials, Dallas just became one of the most improbable championship teams since 1990.

Pythagorean wins is a wonderful statistic that converts scoring differentials into a predicted win-loss record. The statistic can show, among other things, teams that over/under perform, win/lose numerous close games, or just experience good/bad luck.

The 2011 Dallas Mavericks were a team who dominated in close games, and their Finals opponent was lambasted all season for their perceived inability to do the same. The Mavericks’ scoring differential indicated they should have won 53 games, and Miami’s differential indicated they should have won 61. In reality, the Mavs won 57 games, and the Heat won 58.

I went through the data from every Finals matchup since 1990 to highlight some trends:

 *1999 is omitted due to shortened season*

The Mavericks finished with four fewer Pythagorean wins than the average 2^nd place team, and the Heat outdid the average champion by one Pythagorean win.  Clearly, the Heat matched more closely the profile of teams that hoisted the trophy, and the Mavericks had a profile similar to a runner-up. In fact, the 1997 Utah Jazz, who lost in the Finals to Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls, are the only runner-up to post more Pythagorean wins than the 2011 Miami Heat.

To the Overachievers Go the Spoils

 The two recent series between the Mavericks and Heat crowned the team who actually had considerably fewer Pythagorean wins. The only other recent champions to record fewer Pythagorean wins than their Finals opponent are the ’94 and ’95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers. The Rockets repeat team actually posted the fewest actual wins (47) and Pythagorean wins (47) of any champion since 1990.

They Did it Their Way

The chart paints a fairly clear picture: the Mavericks were one of the most successful shooting teams in recent history. EFG% is considered the most important of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors, and the Mavericks were utterly dominant by this measure. The aforementioned ‘95 Rockets were the only unit to shoot better than the ‘11 Mavericks. Conversely, the defense for Dallas ranked just 18^th among recent champions in opponents’ EFG%.

The Mavericks found themselves in the latter half of the pack in other important categories too (offensive rating, defensive rating, TOV%, etc.). However, rule changes and styles of play make some comparisons less than ideal.

Everything is Bigger in Texas

Next, let’s take a look at Pythagorean win – actual win margin. The Mavericks exceeded their Pythagorean win total by four victories, and the Heat fell three games short of their Pythagorean win total (4- -3 = 7).

The only two champions since 1990 to experience a larger positive margin represent the other points of the Texas Triangle. The 2003 Spurs had three more actual wins than Pythagorean wins, and their Finals opponent, New Jersey, had seven fewer. In 1994, the Rockets had five more actual wins than Pythagorean wins, and their opponent, the Knicks, fell short of their Pythagorean win total by three games. 

Margin doesn’t appear to tell us very much as 11 champions since 1990 have had a positive number. The largest negative margin (-9) belongs to the 2004 Detroit Pistons, who crushed the Lakers quest for a four-peat. The Lakers outperformed their Pythagorean record by four victories, and the Pistons underperformed theirs by five wins.

“Houston, we have a lot in common.”

The 1995 Houston Rockets and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks shared many characteristics during their championship season. Both Texas teams featured underrated foreign superstars and faced a Finals opponent that had a significantly better scoring differential. Also, they prevailed in the Finals over teams from Florida that featured all-time great players in the midst of their peaks.

The Mavericks made their money by making a historic percentage of their shots, but the ’95 Rockets are the only champion who manufactured a better EFG% during their regular season.

Do you remember the Mavericks relatively poor performance in opponents EFG%? Well, the Rockets were one of the only recent champions to post an inferior percentage.

Hoarders: NBA Edition

Scoring differential (Pythagorean wins) has historically predicted winners of the NBA Finals at an extremely high rate. Additionally, teams with a great record in close games have met their Waterloo before grabbing the trophy. In 2011, these scenarios were reversed and a team with a superb scoring margin was beat by a group who consistently eked out close victories.

We can speculate about some factors that probably influenced the Mavericks record in close games. For example, it is not uncommon during the regular season to see talented teams coast through 43 minutes of a game and then turn on the jets to shatter an inferior opponent (just watch the Timberwolves). Games like these would result in a win for Dallas, but the margin of victory would not reflect their true talent level. Reducing a game to five minutes of fury seems like a risky strategy, but it may be a sage, energy saving approach for a veteran team like Dallas.

Using the championship teams as a point of reference, let’s examine records in games decided by two points or fewer since the Mavericks Finals appearance in 2006.

It seems like the Mavericks have consistently won games in situations where other teams’ fates are basically decided by the flip of a coin. How did they do it?

The Mavericks appeared to utilize unprecedented information to build their title team. Mark Cuban said on his blog on October 10, 2010:

“The input of numbers into building a team is diminishing and being displaced by non traditional qualitative factors (…) You can try to understand both coaching and chemistry, and we continue to experiment with new ways to do so, but you can’t quantify either (...) Of course there are other elements that we are rapidly expanding at the Mavs that go into our team-building methodology, but I’m keeping all that to myself.”

He really is. Henry Abbot’s recent post on Truehoop discussed three vital members of the Mavericks staff (assistant coach, psychologist, and analyst). Roland Beech, the team’s analyst and founder of 82games.com, frequently discusses strategy with the coaching staff and even gets the privilege of sitting behind the bench during games. As influential as Beech is, the team’s psychologist and unheralded assistant coach may have equally impactful roles.

The Mavericks reached the mountain top with a progressive route, and it is a sure bet that other NBA teams will try to emulate their strategy. We don’t know for sure what the Mavericks do behind the scenes, but a championship banner in American Airlines Center will prove their efforts were worthwhile.

You can follow Matt Scribbins on twitter @mattscribbins

People often say “it’s not the destination, it’s the journey”. Well, the destination is the 2011 NBA Playoffs. Let’s take a look at the journey for some important players who have played in this post-season.

All transaction history is courtesy of Basketball Reference. A name in parenthesis specifies the player ultimately drafted with the pick.

Rajon Rondo

If you think Rajon Rondo moves fast on the floor, wait until you hear how fast his draft pick flew around the league.

The chain of events started in August of 2004 when the Lakers sent a 2006 1st round pick (Rondo), Rick Fox, and Gary Payton to the Boston Celtics. In exchange, Boston shipped Chucky Atkins, Jumaine Jones, and Chris Mihm across the country to Los Angeles.

Six months later, the Celtics traded the 2006 1st round pick (Rondo), Payton, Tom Gugliotta, and Michael Stewart to the Hawks for Antoine Walker.

Atlanta held onto Rondo’s pick for six months before sending it with a 2008 1st round pick (Robin Lopez), and Boris Diaw to Phoenix for Joe Johnson. The Suns held onto the pick ten months before they drafted Rondo in the 1st round of the 2006 draft.

On draft night, Phoenix predictably sent Rondo and Brian Grant to Boston for a 2007 1st round pick. The Suns selected Rudy Fernandez in 2007 with the pick from Boston and traded him and James Jones to Portland for cash.

Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, and Dirk Nowitzki.

What do these players have in common? For one, they will undoubtedly make the Hall of Fame. Also, they were dealt soon after they were drafted.

The Charlotte Hornets selected Kobe Bryant with the 13th pick of the 1996 NBA Draft, and two weeks later they traded the precocious teenager to the Lakers straight up for Vlade Divac.

The Lakers played in Charlotte for the fourth game of Bryant’s NBA career, and Bryant scored five points while Divac was shutout. Divac toiled in Charlotte for two seasons before he signed as a free agent with the Sacramento Kings. Obviously, Bryant is working on another three-peat in his 15th year as a Laker.

Also in 1996, the Timberwolves drafted Ray Allen with the 5th pick overall. They quickly traded him and a 1998 first round pick (Rasho Nesterovic) to the Bucks for the 4th overall pick in 1996, Stephon Marbury. Marbury played two and half seasons for Minnesota, and Allen was named an All-Star three times during his Milwaukee stint.

In 1998, Milwaukee was involved in another momentous transaction. The Bucks drafted Dirk Nowitzki with the 9th overall pick, one spot before Boston selected Paul Pierce, and then sent Dirk and Pat Garrity to Dallas for Robert “Tractor” Traylor.  Can you imagine Nowitzki and Allen on the same team?

Traylor averaged 4.47 points per game in two seasons with the Bucks. Nowtizki has averaged 23 points per game in 13 seasons as a Dallas denizen.

Pau Gasol

Everyone knows about the 2008 deal that sent Pau Gasol to Los Angeles. Do you remember the deal that sent him to Vancouver?

In 2001, Atlanta drafted Gasol with the 3rd overall pick (the #1 pick in 2001, Kwame Brown, was later traded for Gasol in 2008). The Hawks then made a move with Vancouver to acquire Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Jamaal Tinsley. All Atlanta had to send north of the border was Brevin Knight, Lorenzen Wright, and one of the best big men in the world, Pau Gasol.

Josh Smith

While Josh Smith was in high school, his draft pick was a hot commodity in the NBA. In 2001, the Bucks sent a 2004 1st round draft pick (Smith) and Scott Williams to the Nuggets for Aleksandar Radojevic and Kevin Willis. Willis was later traded the same day to Houston, and Radojevic scored 26 points in his 15 game NBA career.

A year later, the Nuggets shipped Smith’s pick and two other players to Detroit for Rodney White. Finally, the 2004 1st round pick (Smith) moved in a three way trade in 2004. The Pistons sent the pick to Atlanta, and Rasheed Wallace headed to Detroit after he played one game for the Hawks. The Pistons also traded a 2004 1st round pick (Tony Allen) to Boston in the deal. 

Jason Collins and Amare Stoudemire

1999 is legendary for parties and trades involving Jason Collins.

In August of 1999, the Suns traded a 2001 1st round pick (Collins), Pat Garrity, Danny Manning and 2002 1st round pick to the Orlando Magic for Anfernee Hardaway. The Magic later sent the 2002 1st round pick back to the Suns, and Phoenix used it to draft Amare Stoudemire. That’s the circle of life.

Later in August of 1999, the Magic traded the 2001 1st round pick (Collins) and a 2002 2nd round pick (Matt Barnes).  Orlando received Lee Mayberry, Rodrick Rhodes, Michael Smith and something called Makhtar N’diaye.
In 2000, Collins’ pick was involved in a four team trade that sent NBA legend Patrick Ewing to the Seattle SuperSonics.

Finally, in 2001, Collins was drafted by Houston, and then traded with Richard Jefferson to New Jersey on draft night. Ten years later, Collins is asked to stop the man Patrick Ewing coaches, Dwight Howard.

Joakim Noah and LaMarcus Aldridge

The Knicks have superstars now, but a 2005 trade sent away picks eventually used on terrific big men.

On October 4th, the Knicks received Eddy Curry, Antonio Davis and a 2007 1st round pick (Wilson Chandler) from the Bulls. It only cost them Jermaine Jackson, Mike Sweetney, Tim Thomas, a 2007 2nd round pick (Kyrylo Fesenko), a 2009 2nd round pick (Jon Brockman), and 1st round picks in 2006 and 2007. Who did Chicago draft with the 1st round picks? LaMarcus Aldridge and Joakim Noah.

Aldridge’s time in Chicago was brief. A draft night deal sent him and a 2007 2nd round pick to Portland in exchange for Tyrus Thomas and Viktor Khryapa.

Mike Miller

Mike Miller’s draft pick was swapped seven years before he played in the NBA.

On June 30th, 1993, the Warriors traded Anfernee Hardaway, a 1996 1st round pick (Todd Fuller), a 1998 1st round pick (Vince Carter), and a 2000 1st round pick (Miller) to Orlando. The Magic dealt Chris Webber, the man they chose 1st overall the same day, back to Golden State.

Miller was later traded with a 2003 1st round pick (Kendrick Perkins) and additional picks to the Grizzlies for Drew Gooden and Gordan Giricek.     

Glen Davis

On June 28th 2007, Delonte West, Jeff Green, Wally Szczerbiak, and a 2008 2nd round draft pick were shipped to the Seattle SuperSonics. The SuperSonics sent Ray Allen and Glen Davis to Boston, and the move helped the Celtics win a championship in 2008.

Does anything about the trade seem odd? Green, West, Allen, and Davis are all members of the 2011 edition of the Boston Celtics.

Shawn Marion

In 1998, Dallas traded a 1999 1st round pick (Marion), Bubba Wells, Martin Muursepp and Pat Garrity to the Suns for Steve Nash. (Pat Garrity was also involved in the Collins/Stoudemire/Hardaway deal, the trade that sent Shawn Kemp to Cleveland, and he was the player Milwaukee sent with Dirk to Dallas).

In 2008, Phoenix traded Marion and Marcus Banks to the Heat for Shaquille O’Neal. One year later, Marion was traded for another current Celtic center (Jermaine O’Neal). In 2009, Marion was part of the deal that sent Hedo Turkoglu to Toronto.

Larry Drew

The Hawks current coach, Larry Drew, was an assistant for the man he replaced, Mike Woodson. Before the duo coached together, they were both traded in August of 1986. The Sacramento Kings sent Drew, Woodson, a 1988 1st round pick (Hersey Hawkins), and a 1989 2nd round pick to the Clippers. The Kings received Junior Bridgeman, Franklin Edwards, and Derek Smith.

You can follow Matt Scribbins on twitter @mattscribbins

Do you remember the story of the 2010-2011 Green Bay Packers? They were the trendy pre-season pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. After six weeks, their record stood at 3-3, and no one was predicting they would make the title game. They had to beat the Chicago Bears in Week 17 to even make the playoffs. Here is a look at the Packers’ close games during the regular season:

·    Lost to Chicago by 3
·    Beat Detroit by 2
·    Lost to Washington by 3
·    Lost to Miami by 3
·    Beat Minnesota by 4
·    Lost to Atlanta by 3
·    Lost to Detroit by 4
·    Lost to New England by 4

Green Bay was 2-6 in games decided by five points or less during the regular season. In the playoffs, they won three straight road games to capture the NFC Title. In the Super Bowl, they beat a team with an affinity for winning close games. Three of their playoff victories were by seven points or less. Mike McCarthy is not complaining right now about his team’s inability to win close games during the regular season. He is sitting at home reliving the moment he hoisted the Lombardi Trophy as the winning coach of Super Bowl XLV.

The tale of the Miami Heat resembles the story about Green Bay. NBA fans can’t stop talking about Miami’s record in close games and declaring them down for the count. Anyone who follows the Association knows they are 5-13 (that's a better winning percentage than Green Bay's 2-6 for those who are counting) in games decided by five points or less. But did you know Miami is 3-1 in games decided by six points? 3-0 in games decided by seven points? How about 4-1 in games decided by eight points? They have also won two overtime games on the road by more than five points. Their record is 38-7 in games decided by six points or more. Those games obviously aren’t as close as a five point game, but you get the idea.

Here are other numbers regarding Miami’s performance in games decided by five points or less:

·    10 - games as part of a back to back
·    8 - times Miami has been outscored by opponent in fourth quarter
·    3 - games missed by Bosh
·    2 - games missed by Wade
·    1 - game missed by James

This is not to dismiss the notion Miami has issues. They certainly do. They don’t have one player they count on to take the last shot. They have blown late leads. They haven’t beaten either of the teams ahead of them in their conference. They were embarrassed in San Antonio last week.  Chris Bosh bricked his way into the record books with a historically bad shooting performance. The corpse of Mike Bibby is seeing minutes. The only thing we know for sure is they cried after their latest loss.

One potential problem before the season was who will shoot in crunch time? Anyone on board with this school of thought pretty much nailed it. Miami lacks consistency at the end of games. Kobe Bryant will take all the meaningful shots for the Lakers and the Mavericks almost always let Dirk hoist it at the end. The Heat basically use a closer by committee approach. Eddie House, Mike Miller, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James are all candidates for the last shot when Coach Spoelstra grabs the clipboard. The Heat might be better off picking either Wade or James for the setup role in the eighth inning and letting the other one get the ball in the ninth every time. At least this would provide consistency and make their teammates more comfortable in defined roles.

Another point worth considering is the onus on the Big Three to log tons of minutes. James, Bosh, and Wade are tied for third, tied for eighth, and tied for 13th respectively in the Eastern Conference in minutes per game through March 7th. It is conceivable the players are just too worn down by the end of games to finish them out. However, Miami may not be in as much as trouble as everyone thinks.

Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus wrote a great article two years ago about records in close games. He concludes “we should not read much, if anything, into a team's record in close games.” The Heat's massive disparity in winning percentage in close games compared to the regular season may give one second thoughts, but one still must use caution in forming conclusions from these samples.

For those who think Miami just can’t win close games, your support is here. Take a minute, though, to look at the other teams with substantial discrepancies between their record in close games (five points or less) and other games. All of these teams weren’t fatally flawed. The 1952 Minneapolis Lakers overcame their shortcomings in close games to win the title. The 2004 Detroit Pistons rode the aforementioned Billups to basketball immortality. The 2007 San Antonio Spurs won their fourth championship with Tim Duncan. The record books show the 1991 Chicago Bulls, 1992 Chicago Bulls and the 2008 Boston Celtics were on top of the basketball world by the end of the season. The 2003 New Jersey Nets lost in the NBA Finals, but won two games in the series by a bucket or less!      

Miami fans better keep their schedule for May and June clear. The Heat crushed the defending champions on the road. They split the season series with their division rival, a team who played in the Conference Finals last year and the NBA Finals the year before.  They have the second highest expected winning percentage in the NBA. Their efficiency differential is still the best in the East. Even in the midst of a four game losing streak, they are only four games out of first place in the Eastern Conference.

Chicago Bears coach Love Smith was guaranteed a spot in the NFL playoffs last fall heading into his Week 17 matchup versus the Green Bay Packers. Smith didn’t look at Green Bay’s record in close games and conclude they wouldn’t be a threat in the playoffs. He knew the young team was dangerous so he made the gusty decision to play his starters throughout a game they did not need to win. His attempt to prevent the Packers from post-season play failed and the Bears eventually lost to Green Bay in the NFC Title Game.

NBA coaches would love an opportunity to prevent this squad from making the play-offs, but it isn’t going to happen. The Miami Heat will be there. Tom Thibodeau, Stan Van Gundy, and Doc Rivers aren’t counting out the Heat. You shouldn’t either.

Matt Scribbins can be followed on Twitter @MattScribbins

For many, love is a four letter word. For NBA stat nerds, Love is a four factor word. Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love is putting up huge box scores this season and grabbing headlines. However, critics discredit Love because he plays on the league's fastest team and has ample opportunities to rack up rebounds and points. For example, Minnesota has almost eight more possessions per game than LaMarcus Aldridge’s Portland squad. Bill Walton said a double-double is one of the most overrated basketball statistics during the Celtics and Clippers broadcast last week. Maybe he is right. I compared Love to top NBA big men using rate statistics to see how productive he truly is.

Dean Oliver’s basketball research showed four factors play a critical role in deciding the outcome of basketball games. The four factors are effective field goal percentage (EFG %), offensive rebounding rate (ORR), free throw rate (FTR), and turnover rate (TOR). Effective field goal percentage compensates for made 3-pointers being worth 50% more than a successful 2-point field goal. The equation for EFG % = (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA. Offensive rebounding rate is the percentage of offensive rebounds grabbed by a player while he is on the floor. Free throw rate measures how often a player gets to the line per shot attempt and is calculated by FTA/FGA. Turnover rate is the percentage of possessions used by the player ending in a turnover. Oliver’s research focused on team statistics, but this analysis studies the four factors of individual players.

Here is a comparison of the top big men in the NBA using Oliver’s four factors.

*All statistics from hoopdata.com and updated through 2/28*

(Cells in dark tan indicate statistics better than Love’s. The number inside the parentheses is Love’s rank among the listed players.)

Is Kevin Love one of the best offensive players at his position? By statistical measures, definitely. If Dean Oliver adds a fifth factor, outlet passes, he will become a legend.

Determining which of the four factors is most important for big men is difficult, but offensive rebounds are vital. In addition to providing a team an extra scoring opportunity, offensive rebounds are typically secured in areas leading to high percentage shots. Love grabs offensive rebounds at an elite rate, only trailing Z-Bound himself.

Critics will argue Love’s EFG% is greater than other centers because he shoots more three pointers than anyone on the list. This increases his chances of earning a high EFG% and is a valid point. However, Love probably isn’t taking long shots with aspirations of boosting his EFG%. The Wolves simply do not have a guard who can consistently feed Love in the post. Consider the supporting cast of the comparison players. It is almost comical to consider Love’s teammates have the same job description.

League averages show shots near the rim are the most likely to go in, but they aren’t the easiest shots to create. Many of the same skills NFL running backs need to blast across the goal line are also needed to frequently attempt shots near the rim in the NBA. These players need athleticism, size, strength and a high motor. Love possesses the size, strength, and high motor, but many doubt he has the freak athletic ability of other rim finishers. Blake Griffin shoots about 2.5 more shots at the rim per game than Love. Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard and LaMarcus Aldridge attempt at least 1.3 shots more per game at the rim.

Love may be forced outside due to factors beyond his control, but his shooting ability is elite. None of the other players on the list have a three point shot worth comparing. Just because Kevin lets it fly from behind the arc doesn’t mean he automatically increases his EFG%. He still has to make the shots. Love attempts 3.1 three pointers per game. For comparison, Eddie House and Hedo Turkoglu attempt 3.2 three pointers per game. Love‘s EFG% of 64.2% on three pointers is much higher than House’s and Turkoglu’s EFG%’s, 59.0% and 57.8% respectively. An encouraging sign is Love’s knack for knocking down the three will make him effective for years, as it is a somewhat ageless quality. Blake Griffin won’t always dunk ferociously and someday will need to improve his below average shooting from everywhere outside 10 feet. Kevin Love will still contribute in the NBA once his physical skills decline due to his prolific outside game.

One surprising aspect of Love’s game is his ability to draw fouls. He isn’t jumping out of the gym or blowing past defenders on the key. He will never become dunk contest immortality like the comparison players with better free throw rates. Howard and Griffin have higher FTR’s, but Love is considerably better than either once they reach the stripe. Griffin shoots 62.6% and Dwight Howard avoids abusing the rim only 59.2% of the time. Love is making 86.7% of his freebies this year. For Kurt Rambis, that’s amore.

The New York Knicks play at the second fastest pace of any NBA team, using nearly 98.3 possessions per game. As mentioned earlier, the Wolves are fastest team in the league and use 99.7 possessions nightly. It is interesting to compare Love and Stoudemire on per game averages and the four factors. Amare scores about five more points per game, but also attempts five extra shots. Love grabs nearly seven more rebounds and has better numbers in all four factors. Amare is glorified for his offense, but it appears Kevin Love is virtually just as valuable. Both may check in at the other end of the spectrum if defensive measures were included in this analysis.

The Timberwolves decided all they needed was Love and shipped Al Jefferson to Utah in July of 2010. Surprisingly, David Kahn made the correct choice. Love is putting up superior statistical measures in every category besides TOR this season. Love even boasts a FTR twice as large as Big Al’s.

With the departure of Jefferson, Love’s supporting cast is desolate. Many of the top big men in the NBA have teammates who demand attention. For example, Pau Gasol benefits from playing next to Andrew Bynum and having the offense run through Kobe Bryant. Kevin Love does not play with any good players, let alone superstars. Pairing with Darko Milicic doesn’t exactly ease the burden on Love. How many Lakers fans would believe Andrew Bynum is better than manna from heaven?  

It is fair to wonder if NBA teams could shut down Love if they had to. Did Phil Jackson fret last night about Love leading the Wolves to victory? Probably not. But who else would they game plan for? Right now, Love is a really good player on a really bad team. Consider he has scored less than 15 points only nine times and has snared less than 15 rebounds just 15 times during his 47 game double-double streak. All of his monster performances have only resulted in 10 wins for Minnesota during the streak.

There is no doubt Love’s defense must improve. Heck, he was benched Opening Night in favor of Anthony Tolliver. He may never be a stopper, but who knows what would happen if he is surrounded by great defenders? If Love can convince David Stern to adapt the old Iowa high school girls’ rules of three players on offense and three players on defense, he may become one of the most productive players in history.

With no help around him and no reason for teams to spend days crafting ways to stop him, it is hard to know just how great Love is. Basketball fans should eagerly wait to see Love’s performance when he plays with competent teammates. Whether this is in Minnesota or another city remains to be seen. Until then, NBA fans should just launch League Pass Broadband and marvel as one of the game’s most productive big men wreaks havoc on NBA nerd’s spreadsheets.